Pegasus Group’s latest data indicates that nearly two-thirds of local planning authorities (LPAs) outside London are likely to find their key development policies outdated when reassessing housing land supply in line with the Government’s revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF).

The analysis suggests that 65% of LPAs will struggle to demonstrate a five-year housing land supply, increasing to 66% when including authorities with a history of substantial under-delivery. This situation will trigger the presumption in favour of sustainable development in two-thirds of these authorities, representing a significant shift in national planning policy.

The issue is particularly pronounced in the West Midlands (83%), the South East (81%), and the South West (74%), where the revised methodology for assessing housing need and the introduction of a buffer requirement under the updated NPPF have had a significant impact.

Less than 40% of LPAs outside London have updated their housing land supply assessments to reflect the new policy framework. The revised NPPF maintains the presumption in favour of sustainable development when policies are deemed out-of-date but introduces changes in how housing need and supply sufficiency are assessed. Pegasus Group states that this leaves most local authorities vulnerable to policy challenges.

Neil Tiley, senior director of economics at Pegasus Group, said: “Our analysis paints a pretty bleak picture as it underlines the extent to which minimum local housing needs are not being planned for or delivered nationally, and the challenge that the country faces in responding to the deepening housing crisis.”

He added: “To support the national growth agenda and meet the housing needs of communities which have not been addressed for decades, there is a desperate need to bring forward more housing, as supported by the recent changes to national policy. Notwithstanding this, it will be very challenging to release a sufficient supply of housing to fully address housing needs. In order to do so, new development plans will need to be prepared and adopted to fully meet housing needs, but in the interim housing will need to be approved notwithstanding a conflict with existing out-of-date development plans.”

With national policy changes and a persistent housing shortfall, LPAs will need to adapt their approaches to meet demand while ensuring compliance with the revised NPPF.