UK inflation eased to a three-month low in March, according to official data, with additional indicators monitored by the Bank of England also showing signs of cooling.

However, rising utility costs and employer-related expenses are expected to place renewed upward pressure on prices in the coming months, amid global uncertainty driven in part by trade policy developments in the United States.

The annual rate of consumer price inflation fell to 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% in February and below the Bank of England’s forecast of 2.7%.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the decline was primarily driven by lower prices for computer games and a reduction in fuel costs. This was partially offset by a rise in clothing prices, which had previously fallen unexpectedly in February.

"This is very much the calm before the storm," said Michael Saunders, a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. He cited upcoming increases in gas, electricity, and water prices, along with higher employer taxes, as potential contributors to a rise in inflation. "April's increases in gas, electricity and water prices, alongside higher taxes on employers, which could push inflation to 3%."

Saunders also pointed to international factors, including trade tensions initiated by the United States. "And we'll start to see the effects on the economy of Storm Donald with the Trump trade wars," he told BBC radio.

Although Saunders believes inflation is now likely to peak below the Bank’s most recent projection of 3.7% for the third quarter, he warned that weaker economic growth may be the trade-off.

The Bank of England, which targets a 2% inflation rate, had forecast in February that inflation would rise to 3.6% in April, largely due to increases in regulated utility tariffs for households.

Since then, the global outlook has been affected by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to implement broad trade tariffs, raising concerns about a potential global economic slowdown.

Martin Sartorius, principal economist at the Confederation of British Industry, said the impact of U.S. tariffs could influence UK inflation in both directions, depending on how trade flows are affected. He added that the Bank of England may respond by lowering interest rates in the coming month.